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      "temperature": 0.8,
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    },
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      "freezeAt": "2026-01-03T20:00:00.000Z",
      "temperature": 0.8,
      "baseline": {
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      "games": 13,
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  },
  "notes": [
    "Retrospective replays are separate from genuine live forecast receipts. This season has already been inspected; the chronological split is not an untouched validation set.",
    "Confidence temperature is selected only on earlier settled regular-season games, using Brier score. The same frozen choice is checked on later weeks; market prices are a benchmark, never a calibration input.",
    "No division, road-under or price-band profit is converted into a probability boost. No injury, score, spread, total or team-total calibration is inferred from winner results.",
    "A candidate may improve the core and still trail the market. Historical success does not authorize automatic promotion. New pregame shadow receipts provide prospective validation."
  ],
  "currentCoreMatches": true,
  "marketPatterns": {
    "available": true,
    "status": "research-only",
    "probabilityBoostsEnabled": false,
    "notes": [
      "Cheap-longshot NO and division-underdog patterns are hypotheses, not model multipliers.",
      "Road team unders had only nine eligible regular-season observations; no adjustment is supported."
    ],
    "coverage": {
      "downloadedReceipts": 1668,
      "usableQuoteRows": 2339,
      "noCandle": 1045,
      "rejected": 1620,
      "byHorizon": {
        "1": {
          "winner": {
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            "regularGames": 272,
            "teamOrGameThresholds": 570,
            "firstKickoff": "2025-09-05T00:20:00.000Z",
            "lastKickoff": "2026-02-08T23:30:00.000Z"
          },
          "teamTotal": {
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            "regularGames": 11,
            "teamOrGameThresholds": 45,
            "firstKickoff": "2025-12-05T01:15:00.000Z",
            "lastKickoff": "2026-02-08T23:30:00.000Z"
          },
          "gameTotal": {
            "games": 229,
            "regularGames": 216,
            "teamOrGameThresholds": 229,
            "firstKickoff": "2025-09-06T00:00:00.000Z",
            "lastKickoff": "2026-02-08T23:30:00.000Z"
          }
        },
        "24": {
          "winner": {
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            "firstKickoff": "2025-09-05T00:20:00.000Z",
            "lastKickoff": "2026-02-08T23:30:00.000Z"
          },
          "teamTotal": {
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            "teamOrGameThresholds": 11,
            "firstKickoff": "2025-12-12T01:15:00.000Z",
            "lastKickoff": "2026-02-08T23:30:00.000Z"
          },
          "gameTotal": {
            "games": 81,
            "regularGames": 70,
            "teamOrGameThresholds": 81,
            "firstKickoff": "2025-09-07T20:05:00.000Z",
            "lastKickoff": "2026-02-08T23:30:00.000Z"
          }
        },
        "72": {
          "winner": {
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            "regularGames": 271,
            "teamOrGameThresholds": 568,
            "firstKickoff": "2025-09-05T00:20:00.000Z",
            "lastKickoff": "2026-02-08T23:30:00.000Z"
          },
          "teamTotal": {
            "games": 2,
            "regularGames": 0,
            "teamOrGameThresholds": 3,
            "firstKickoff": "2026-01-10T21:30:00.000Z",
            "lastKickoff": "2026-02-08T23:30:00.000Z"
          },
          "gameTotal": {
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            "regularGames": 24,
            "teamOrGameThresholds": 30,
            "firstKickoff": "2025-09-26T00:15:00.000Z",
            "lastKickoff": "2026-02-08T23:30:00.000Z"
          }
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "candidate": {
    "id": "historical-winner-6048676f430955e5",
    "mode": "shadow-only",
    "scope": "winner-no-injuries",
    "modelVersion": "gridiron-fundamental-v0.2",
    "modelHash": "6a83f1c9e91d856dc1bb293fdc7cf7f84054e29a3fd33e983e62edf5a25ca50e",
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    "temperature": 0.8,
    "frozenAt": "2026-09-13T15:53:57.474Z",
    "trainingWeeks": "2025 weeks 1–9",
    "validationWeeks": "2025 weeks 10–18, previously inspected season",
    "promoted": false
  }
}