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"KXNFLTOTAL-26OCT05ATLNO-40", "action": "YES", "family": "total", "line": 39.5, "priceBucket": "60-79c", "ask": 0.75, "fair": 0.6246000000000107, "baselineFair": 0.6451200000000085, "netEdge": -0.1385249999999893, "payout": 1, "paperNetPerContract": 0.236875, "binary": true, "settledAt": "2026-10-06T02:42:07.130349Z" }, { "ticker": "KXNFLTOTAL-26OCT05ATLNO-47", "action": "YES", "family": "total", "line": 46.5, "priceBucket": "40-59c", "ask": 0.55, "fair": 0.42803999999999903, "baselineFair": 0.447599999999999, "netEdge": -0.13928500000000102, "payout": 1, "paperNetPerContract": 0.432675, "binary": true, "settledAt": "2026-10-06T02:59:37.123803Z" }, { "ticker": "KXNFLTOTAL-26OCT05ATLNO-43", "action": "YES", "family": "total", "line": 42.5, "priceBucket": "60-79c", "ask": 0.67, "fair": 0.5445200000000097, "baselineFair": 0.5645200000000133, "netEdge": -0.14095699999999037, "payout": 1, "paperNetPerContract": 0.31452299999999994, "binary": true, "settledAt": "2026-10-06T02:59:37.157811Z" } ] } ], "notes": [ "All loaded winner, spread, total and team-total contracts, both sides; excludes props, parlays and unlisted markets.", "Receipts are observations at refresh times, not a complete record of every price offered during the week.", "One latest receipt at least 60 minutes before kickoff and no more than 24 hours before that cutoff, per game and exact model version.", "Finalized Kalshi payouts govern grading; scalar settlements have paper payout diagnostics but are excluded from binary probability calibration.", "Brier and log loss weight families equally within each game and games equally. Both sides and repeated receipts do not multiply the sample size.", "Temperature candidates change probability confidence only. Weekly forward tests choose candidates using earlier settled games. No automatic model promotion; a promising candidate needs a fresh untouched holdout.", "Paper selections choose at most one quoted side per game above a 4-point estimated net gap. Payout diagnostics assume a fill at the saved ask, estimated unrounded fees, and no slippage; they are not actual returns.", "Runs on board refresh or npm run nfl:research. No background scheduler or trading is enabled." ], "coverage": { "completeReceipts": 35, "legacyPartialReceiptsExcluded": 6, "archivedGames": 77, "latestSides": 2058, "latestQuotedSides": 2048, "officialSettlements": 4582 }, "sourceErrors": [], "historical": { "kind": "retrospective-replay", "status": "candidate-needs-prospective-validation", "coverage": { "games": 285, "regularSeason": 272, "playoffs": 13, "binaryGames": 284 }, "chronological": { "trainingGames": 134, "freezeAt": "2025-11-07T00:00:00.000Z", "candidates": [ { "temperature": 0.8, "games": 134, "brier": 0.22441408022961182, "logLoss": 0.6396171563207881 }, { "temperature": 1, "games": 134, "brier": 0.22590936123880598, "logLoss": 0.6431628885787706 }, { "temperature": 1.2, "games": 134, "brier": 0.22776530900942743, "logLoss": 0.6473767560168591 } ], "temperature": 0.8, "baseline": { "games": 137, "brier": 0.2200016308116787, "logLoss": 0.6297272090182198 }, "challenger": { "games": 137, "brier": 0.2184178434228447, "logLoss": 0.6252040085898637 }, "market": { "games": 137, "brier": 0.21381204379562055, "logLoss": 0.6090144806042447 } }, "marketPatterns": { "available": true, "status": "research-only", "probabilityBoostsEnabled": false, "notes": [ "Cheap-longshot NO and division-underdog patterns are hypotheses, not model multipliers.", "Road team unders had only nine eligible regular-season observations; no adjustment is supported." ], "coverage": { "downloadedReceipts": 1668, "usableQuoteRows": 2339, "noCandle": 1045, "rejected": 1620, "byHorizon": { "1": { "winner": { "games": 285, "regularGames": 272, "teamOrGameThresholds": 570, "firstKickoff": "2025-09-05T00:20:00.000Z", "lastKickoff": "2026-02-08T23:30:00.000Z" }, "teamTotal": { "games": 24, "regularGames": 11, "teamOrGameThresholds": 45, "firstKickoff": "2025-12-05T01:15:00.000Z", "lastKickoff": "2026-02-08T23:30:00.000Z" }, "gameTotal": { "games": 229, "regularGames": 216, "teamOrGameThresholds": 229, "firstKickoff": "2025-09-06T00:00:00.000Z", "lastKickoff": "2026-02-08T23:30:00.000Z" } }, "24": { "winner": { "games": 285, "regularGames": 272, "teamOrGameThresholds": 570, "firstKickoff": "2025-09-05T00:20:00.000Z", "lastKickoff": "2026-02-08T23:30:00.000Z" }, "teamTotal": { "games": 8, "regularGames": 2, "teamOrGameThresholds": 11, "firstKickoff": "2025-12-12T01:15:00.000Z", "lastKickoff": "2026-02-08T23:30:00.000Z" }, "gameTotal": { "games": 81, "regularGames": 70, "teamOrGameThresholds": 81, "firstKickoff": "2025-09-07T20:05:00.000Z", "lastKickoff": "2026-02-08T23:30:00.000Z" } }, "72": { "winner": { "games": 284, "regularGames": 271, "teamOrGameThresholds": 568, "firstKickoff": "2025-09-05T00:20:00.000Z", "lastKickoff": "2026-02-08T23:30:00.000Z" }, "teamTotal": { "games": 2, "regularGames": 0, "teamOrGameThresholds": 3, "firstKickoff": "2026-01-10T21:30:00.000Z", "lastKickoff": "2026-02-08T23:30:00.000Z" }, "gameTotal": { "games": 30, "regularGames": 24, "teamOrGameThresholds": 30, "firstKickoff": "2025-09-26T00:15:00.000Z", "lastKickoff": "2026-02-08T23:30:00.000Z" } } } } }, "prospective": { "status": "collecting-prospective-evidence", "candidateId": "historical-winner-6048676f430955e5", "selectedGames": 5, "games": 5, "baseline": { "games": 5, "brier": 0.25017660048, "logLoss": 0.6951453106392922 }, "challenger": { "games": 5, "brier": 0.2531290288187151, "logLoss": 0.7030022047387905 }, "promoted": false }, "promoted": false } }