football market companion
NFL market boards
Gridiron Line
Market-free projections against executable Kalshi prices.
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Learning loop · Every line, every game
We record both sides of every loaded winner, spread, total and team-total line. After settlement, we compare saved probabilities with payouts and test small confidence corrections on later weeks. Alternate lines from one game stay together.
Current forecast remains the baseline. No candidate is automatically promoted. These are price snapshots and hypothetical fills, not a record of trades.
Download learning report · Download historical calibration · Download current line audit
My Lines · Weekly records
Personal entries save on this browser. Export a backup to transfer them to another device. Week 1 entries from our conversation are included.
Current slate
Model fair value vs Kalshi
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Model receiptWhat this first Gridiron version is usingdetails
Fundamental inputs
Completed scores since 2022 plus opponent-adjusted play-by-play efficiency: yards, success rate, offensive points per drive, possessions, turnovers and field position. Current-season results enter only after the availability cutoff. A dated receipt shows coverage and any fallback to the legacy model.
Simulation
Each matchup runs 25,000 possession-level simulations with touchdown, field-goal, safety, pace, shared game environment, and overtime outcomes.
Market layer
Kalshi winner, spread, total, and team-total asks are compared after the independent forecast is complete. Gaps are reliability-discounted. Historical score-error improvement was small; profitable market performance has not been established.
Availability and weather
Experimental injury scenarios adjust scores for availability changes since a saved opening reference. Position values and absence probabilities are assumptions, not historical calibration. Original projections and sensitivity ranges remain visible. Weather is monitored but does not adjust scores. Final starting lineups remain unconfirmed.